Key Takeaways in the Middle East:
- Terror attacks in the Middle East reduced to 57 from 88 compared to the previous month.
- PKK carried out 1 IED attack against civilians in the rural settings of Yolaçti in Turkey. As a result of this attack, 2 civilians lost their lives. Whereas AlQaeda Core also showed its presence in Yemen in the region of Al Bayda and As Sawmaah by mainly targeting 4 soldiers. IED attacks and armed reactions were used as an engagement mode.
- DAESH dominated Iraq with 25 attacks whereas PKK carried out only 5 attacks majorly in rural settings. PKK has relied on IED attacks and armed reactions for targeting operational military units whereas DAESH utilized a variety of tactics against a variety of targeted objects. It has heavily relied on assassinations, armed reactions, and harassing fires while giving subsequent chances to kidnapping and execution, bomb attacks, rocket attacks, ambush, raids, and IED attacks. DAESH's prime targets were Operational military units and Civilians whereas police units and military facilities were also targeted.
Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s Sairoon Alliance has dominated the polls in Iraq’s Parliamentary elections with 73 seats out of 329 which is followed by the Taqaddum bloc with 37 seats, State of Law bloc with 34 seats, and KDP with 32 seats. The Al –Fatah coalition with 17 seats backed by Iran has rejected the results and called for protests. In short, Post elections environment suggests huge abruption of violence in the upcoming months.
- Terror attacks in Syria in this month have reduced to half compared to the previous month i.e 44 to 23. YPG has taken lead with 13 attacks over DASEH with 10 attacks. DAESH has solely operated in rural settings whereas YPG has majorly operated in Urban settings with minute involvement in urban areas. Operational military units and civilians remained at the top targets of terror attacks. YPG has adopted a wide variety of terror tactics such as VBIED, rocket launcher, ATGM attacks, Mortar attacks, Rocket attacks, harassing fires whereas DAESH relied on armed reactions, assassinations. What commonality both the terrorist group shared in attacking tactics is the use of IED attacks.
Categorically, the Middle East has seen a decline in terror activities from 81 to 57, with 79-42 killings, 63-57 wounded. So overall a decline has shown up in cause and effect of terror activities. Compared to the past months no kidnapping incident is noticed whereas 2 /militias/ terrorists were also killed.
Key Takeaways in Asia:
- In South Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan whereas in South East Asia, Indonesia and the Philippines continued to maintain their spot as the most terror hit countries.
- Tahrik-i- Taliban Pakistan has shown a slight upward surge in its activities this month with a total of 11 attacks. It has mainly targeted tribal areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while extending its reach to the second biggest city of Balochistan Turbat. This trend of TTP was followed by BLA who has targeted the third largest populated city of Balochistan Khuzdar. In short Balochistan’s urban areas remained under the high target of both the terror groups in October. IED attacks, assassinations, and armed reactions were the most widely used tactics by TTP whereas BLA relied on its single attempt on Bomb attack. The target of all these attacks remained the operational police and military units.
- Islamic States Khorasan IS-K emerged as a threatening counterpart to the Taliban in office. IS-K has majorly targeted the capital of Nangarhar province (Jalalabad) and its Pashtun-dominated district of Khogyani, Nurgal, and Chaparhar with a single attack on Dawlatabad of Faryab province. IS-K gained a stronghold in the eastern part of Nangarhar province which has its international border with Pakistan’s KPK province where TTP is actively involved in terror activities. IS-K based its activities equally in rural and urban settings by targeting security officials, military units, political figures, and civilians. It has used a variety of engagement tactics in which assassination, kidnapping, and execution remained at the top of the list whereas ambush, IED attacks, and armed reactions were given tertiary preference.
In short, decoding the targeting strategy of these three terror groups it can be viewed from the operating pattern that they target maximum in one month, adopt a downward surge in next month, gain momentum, and come back with an upward surge in attacks in the consecutive month. That’s how TTP operationalized its attack since august from 11 to 3 in September to 12 in October whereas the same pattern is followed by BLA and IS-K.
- New People’s Army conducted 6 attacks in the rural settings of the Philippines against operational military units with a difference in its targeted object attacking civilians also. Armed reactions and assassinations were the two most widely used modes of engagement. Generally, a decline in terror activities is noticed in NPA’s activities since August 2021.
- West Papua National Liberation Army has carried out the lowest 4 attacks in August in Indonesia. After that, an upward pattern is followed in its attacking strategy to 11 attacks in September and now again a downgrade to 7 attacks in October. Comparatively, WPNLA has diverged from its traditional pattern of relying on kidnapping. This month no such incident of kidnapping any political/military official is recorded whereas the armed reaction was utilized as the sole mode of engagement in the rural settings against the operational military units.
Overall, Asia has shown an upward surge in the number of attacks from 23 to 34 with a slight difference in the number of deaths from 10 to 27, wounded 10 to 6 whereas 5 militias/terrorists were eliminated and 2 were wounded. Differing from the past track no kidnapping activity was noticed this month.
Key Takeaways in the South America:
- FARC maintained its consistent approach with two attacks in Argelia and San Vicente Del targeting operational military units and the Civilians/social sphere. This area of San Vicente Del once served as the FARC capital of El Caguan Demilitarized Zone from 1998-2002 considering it as the safe haven for FARC rebels. Differing from the previous month, now it has targeted Amazonian municipality in Caquetá department and South Colombia by utilizing armed reactions as an engagement tool.
- In comparison to the previous month, ELN has shown its presence with one activity in Villa del Rosario which is the eastern part of Norte de Santander bordering Venezuela in the north. ELN carried out the kidnapping and execution of a civilian in this region in this single terror attempt.
Overall the number of attacks carried out in Colombia in this month is similar in numbers to the previous month but there is a slight rise in the casualties ranging from 1 to 3 now.
Key Takeaways in Africa:
- Africa grabbed number one spot as the worst affected region by terrorism with the highest 88 number of attacks resulting in 145 causalities which are maximum in comparison to other regions.
- Geographically terror activities in Africa are analyzed mainly in three regions: the Horn of Africa, the West Sahel Region, and the Sinai Peninsula.
- Out of the total 88 attacks in Africa, 55.68% of them were carried out in Somalia. Al Shabab occupied the top slot with a total of 49 terror attacks whereas DAESH conducted only 2 attacks. DAESH carried out 2 attacks in urban settings targeting operational military units by utilizing IED attacks and assassinations as its preferred mode of engagement. Al Shabab in its activities immensely relied on armed reactions while also utilizing a variety of other targeting tactics such as mortar attacks, IED attacks, kidnapping and execution, assassination, ambush, and raids. Following the same past trail, it has once again kept operational military units at their uppermost target whereas police units and civilians were also targeted at a minor scale. What is different from the previous month is the broadening of its targeted object to political figures and private enterprises. Al Shabab carried out 76.59 percent of its total 47 attacks in rural settings.
All in all Horn of Africa has undergone a down surge in terror attacks in comparison to the previous month from 62 to 49 attacks in total with a decline in rural setting attacks from 95.16 percent to 73.46 percent.
- In the West Sahel Region, a total of 34 attacks were conducted by three main terror groups Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM), Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP), and Boko Haram. In Cameroon and Niger Boko Haram carried out its activities only against civilians using raids and kidnapping as well as execution as its main targeting tactics. Boko Haram remained active this month in the rural settings of these two countries only. Whereas Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) dominated Nigeria with 14 attacks in rural settings targeting the military at priority and civilians at the second one. Armed reactions and IED attacks were heavily utilized by ISWAP in Nigeria. Similarly, Burkina Faso suffered equally with 14 attacks where ISWAP was active with 4 attacks and was dominated by JNIM with 10 attacks. The main point to notice here is civilians are the sole target of both the terror groups in Burkina Faso with a huge reliance on kidnapping, raids, and IED attacks as a mode of engagement. Both these terror groups are also active in Mali at the lower scale with 2 attacks in total targeting civilians and military units in rural settings.
Overall in this West Sahel region civilians were at the utmost target of terror groups in the rural settings with kidnapping plus execution and raids as the main and most preferential mode of engagement.
- Sinai Peninsula is singlehandedly dominated by DAESH in conducting terror activities. It has carried out a total of 5 attacks and all of them in the rural settings of the Sinai Peninsula. The majority of attacks were conducted by IED explosives, whereas assassinations and armed reactions were also utilized at subsequent scales. Compared to the previous month the sole target was operational military units whereas this month DAESH extended its targeting scale by attacking civilians.
By and large, Africa has seen a slight surge in terror attacks in comparison to the previous month from 87 to 88 attacks in total with huge casualties ranging around 145 killings and 140 wounded. Comparing it to the past month, kidnapping as a mode of engagement has gone up from 31.03% to 52.27% this month.