Attack Numbers: 

• In the first half of the year, a total of 1733 terror attacks occurred in the world. Africa suffered the highest number of terror events. Then, it was respectively followed by the Middle East, Europe, Asia and South America. 
• Al-Shabab was the most active terrorist organisation in terms of attack numbers. Their attacks correspond to 39.5% of all the attacks worldwide. DAESH was the second most active with 15.7%.

In the first half of the year, a total of 1733 terror attacks occurred in the world. Africa suffered the highest number of terror events. Most of these attacks have occurred in the Horn of Africa, within the borders of Kenya and Somalia. Almost all of the attacks in this region were conducted by the Al-Shabab terrorist organization and when all the data is taken into account, it is seen that their attacks correspond to 39.5% of all the worldwide terrorist events. This makes Al-Shabab the most active terrorist organization in terms of attack numbers. DAESH, with a 15.7% share in the number of total attacks, was the second most active terrorist organization worldwide and it was the most active one in the Middle East, which suffered the second-highest number of terror events. Subsequently, due to the conflict between the United Armed Forces of Novorossiya and Ukrainian security forces, Europe has suffered the third most terrorist incidents and it was followed by Asia and South America. 

Security Environment:

• Rural regions were favoured by terrorist organisations. 85.9% of all the attacks occurred in rural settings, while only 13.5% were in urban settings.

Rural regions were favoured by terrorist organisations. 85.9% of all the attacks occurred in rural settings, while only 13.5% were in urban settings. However, this dispersion is not representative of all parts of the World and there are countries in which the percentage of attacks taking part in urban settings were higher than the worldwide average. Kenya, Somalia, Pakistan, Ukraine and Colombia are the ones that fit in this cluster. Also, in some countries like Egypt, Turkey, India, Venezuela, Mali, Burkina Faso and Indonesia, terror attacks only took place in rural settings. 

Attack Types:

• Although a total of 21 different attack types were recorded, only three of these were used for 54% of all the attacks. Armed reaction is the most used one with 25.3% and subsequently it is followed by IED attacks (14.7%) and raids (14.0%).
• These attack types require relatively accessible gadgets in comparison with other more resource dependent attack types, such as UCAV attacks. Therefore, they were more common.

Although a total of 21 different attack types were recorded, only three of these were used for 54% of all the attacks. Armed reaction is the most used one with 25.3% and subsequently it is followed by IED attacks (14.7%) and raids (14.0%). These attacks types are mainly conducted by simple assault rifles and homemade explosives that can be built with commonly available resources. As a result, these types of attacks require minimal technological and financial investments; ergo, they are quite common.  For example, UCAV attacks that require a higher amount of economic investment and human capital are only at 0.6% and only seen in Turkey, Iraq and Ukraine. 

Attack Target Types:

• A total of 18 different target types were recorded, however, tactical/operational military units (44.1%), civilians/social spheres (30.4%), and tactical operational police units (5.9%) added up to 80.4% of all the attack targets.
• Also, trends of targeting varied from one terrorist organisation to another. For example, while PKK’s attacks in Turkey were targeting mainly military units in the southeast of Turkey, its offshoot in Syria, YPG, mainly targeted civilians in the north of Syria.

The trend is similar when it comes to attack targets as well. A total of 18 different target types were recorded, however, tactical/operational military units (44.1%), civilians/social spheres (30.4%), and tactical operational police units (5.9%) added up to 80.4% of all the attack targets. Also, trends of targeting varied from one terrorist organisation to another. For example, while PKK’s attacks in Turkey were targeting mainly military units in the southeast of Turkey, its offshoot in Syria, YPG, mainly targeted civilians in the north of Syria. Boko Haram is another example of a terrorist organisation that mainly targeted civilians and Al-Shabab is another example of a terrorist organisation that focused on military units. 

A Special Focus on the PKK 

• In the recent years, geared towards ousting PKK from its territory, Turkey has been carrying out intense domestic operations, together with cross-border operations.
• The cross-border operations have been within the scope of “seek & destroy” doctrine, which aims for eradicating terrorism at its source.
• Operations (Operation Eagle-Claw, Operation Claw-Lightning) were launched on April 23 against the Metina and Avaşin-Basyan line, the regions where the PKK’s northern Iraq camps are located.

In the recent years, geared towards ousting PKK from its territory, Turkey has been carrying out intense domestic operations, together with cross-border operations. The cross-border operations have been within the scope of “seek & destroy” doctrine, which aims for eradicating terrorism at its source. As a consequence, PKK was removed from the Turkish border, its area of activity gradually narrowed and was trapped within its camps in the northern Iraq. By the spring of 2021, it was predicted that the Turkish Armed Forces would launch a new cross-border operations to prevent the PKK from gaining ground again. The expected operations (Operation Eagle-Claw, Operation Claw-Lightning) were launched on April 23 against the Metina and Avaşin-Basyan line, the regions where the PKK’s northern Iraq camps are located.

• Increased security cooperation between the KRG and the Iraqi Central Government, the signing of Sinjar agreement, and the cross-border operations of the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) indicated that a decrease in the activity radius of PKK is soon.
• In advance of its incoming cross-border operations, Turkey has initiated intense security diplomacy with the KRG and the Iraqi Central Government for more effective results.
• It was effective since Peshmerga forces were deployed at the south of the PKK camps while TAF was conducting its operations from the north and occasional clashes between them and PKK occurred. 

Increased security cooperation between the KRG and the Iraqi Central Government, the signing of Sinjar agreement, and the cross-border operations of the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) indicated that a decrease in the activity radius of PKK is soon. Furthermore, in advance of its incoming cross-border operations, Turkey has initiated intense security diplomacy with the KRG and the Iraqi Central Government for more effective results. It looks like it was effective since Peshmerga forces were deployed at the south of the PKK camps while TAF was conducting its operations from the north and occasional clashes between them and PKK occurred. 

• The data shows an increase in the attacks of PKK after the April 23, and these attacks were concentrated in the northern Iraq.
• PKK engaged in intense clashes with the Turkish Armed Forces in order to protect the camps that could be described as "castle" for itself.
• Besides conventional tactics and anti-tank guided missile attacks; PKK utilized explosive loaded drone strikes, which often only cause property damage.
• Unsurprisingly, PKK mostly targeted military units and Peshmerga. 

The data shows an increase in the attacks of PKK after the April 23, and these attacks were concentrated in the northern Iraq. This is because in the early days of the operation, PKK engaged in intense clashes with the Turkish Armed Forces in order to protect the camps that could be described as "castle" for itself. As an attack type, besides conventional tactics and anti-tank guided missile attacks; it also strived for new tactics, such as drone strikes loaded with explosives, which often only cause property damage. Unsurprisingly, PKK mostly targeted military units and Peshmerga. 

At the end of the 2nd month of the operation, the Turkish Armed Forces took control of some of the areas where the PKK previously operated. Squeezed by TAF from the north of the Duhok region and by the Peshmerge forces from the south, the PKK will continue its attacks in the following days in order not to lose its control in the region; therefore, it is highly probable that intense clashes will occur in the region.

*The viewpoints expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of Terrorism Analysis Platform.