Al Shabaab continues to hold and control diminishing territories in Central and Southern Somalia where they have intensified efforts to slow down the government operations targeting to liberate the regions. Al Shabaab targets have mainly been security officers and military installations both for ATMIS and for the Somali government. Attacks on ATMIS forces and positions have likely increased in the period of its one-year anniversary since the transition. The onslaught of the group is assessed to be aiming at taking over control of critical military infrastructure including barracks, police stations, and weapons stores, which will boast the ability to take back control of liberated areas. However, Al Shabaab plots and attacks have largely been thwarted by security agencies with limited casualties. In addition to managing only low-level attacks, Al Shabaab has not managed to take back any significant territories, and losses within their ranks continue as the government intensifies its operations. Government efforts have included strategic changes and appointments in the security sector and the search for justice through the prosecution and sentencing of militants who captured or surrendered the Al Shabaab bomb and gun violence. Political appointments at the top levels of the executive have also been lauded to bring critical experience, stability, and impetus to the war against Al Shabaab. They included the appointment of Mohamed Abdi Ware, a respected elder from the HirShabelle region as the President’s Special Envoy for Stabilization and Civilian Protection. His main mandate is to stabilize liberated territories by ensuring no further loss of civilian lives and efficient provision of critical reconstruction and humanitarian services to the population amidst persistent famine concerns. Ramadan has also provided an opportunity for the government to connect with the population in the liberated territories by distributing foodstuffs and other necessities. The government has also intensified preparations for the second military phase of the operations likely to begin after Holy Month.

However, even as the operations are going on and successes are reported by the government in terms of reclaiming territories, there growing concerns on how to meaningfully limit and fizzle out al Shabaab resources and access to weapons. Al Shabaab continues to show a lot of resilience in mobilizing resources and accessing weapons for its operations, with the group alleging to be contributing resources externally to groups in Mozambique and Nigeria. While the mainstream channels are considered to be effectively regulated and monitored by the government to a good extent, Al Shabaab has reportedly shunned them and activated the group’s sophisticated networks of black market channels of financial extortion and weaponry access. The underground network is assessed to be strongly connected to racketeering and smuggling in Yemen. Partners including UNODC should realign efforts to weaken the resource muscle of the group by disrupting the storage and transfer disguises as well as taxation and laundering syndicates.

*The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of Terrorism Analysis Platform.